You've caught me in the middle of reorganizing and rebuilding this site. I started playing with RSS (the Wilco/Netflix/WOTD/QOTD crap), which really bloated the sidebars. It's time to streamline things a bit. So, for the next couple weeks, things may look a little funny around here.

The Morning After

 

After a rather sleepless night, I ran to the computer this morning to try to get the scoop. Not much has changed since last night. Ohio is the new Florida. And America, with a hubris that only religion can explain, still hates gays. 11 states banned gay marriage last night.

So, here's the scorecard this morning: (map - with NM decided)

• Bush: 254 electoral votes (28 states)
• Kerry: 252 votes (29 states)
• too close to call: Iowa, New Mexico, and Ohio

And here's the detailed breakdown of the too-close-to-call's:

Iowa - with 99% of precints reporting

• electoral votes: 7
• Bush: 741, 325 votes
• Kerry: 725,700 votes
• spread: 15,600

New Mexico - with 99% of precints reporting

• electoral votes: 5
• Bush: 335,311 votes
• Kerry: 323, 691 votes
• spread: 11,700

Ohio - with 100% of preceints reporting

• electoral votes: 20
• Bush: 2,794,346 votes
• Kerry: 2,658,125 votes
• spread: 136,200

Let's take New Mexico and Iowa off the table. Assuming that Bush wins Iowa and New Mexico, he'll have 266 electoral votes—six shy of 270. Giving both states to Kerry lands him 268 electoral votes—two shy of 270. Neither candidate wins without Ohio; either candidate loses without it.

Things don't look great in Ohio. While the 100% of precints reporting should not deceive that it's over—an estimated quarter-million absentee and provisional ballots are still oustanding—there's still a gap of over 136,000 votes there. Some quick (and concededly early morning) math tells me that Kerry would need to get about 78% of the 250,000 outstanding ballots in order to take Ohio. Moreover, as the number of outstanding ballots shrinks (if, say, the 250K projection is inflated; if a lot of the provisional ballots get tossed; etc.), the percentage that Kerry needs rises quickly toward 100%. Given the near even spread in the popular vote—Bush enjoying a 3% lead with about 3.5M more votes—and the fact that many of Ohio's absentee ballots are expected to be from soldiers in Iraq, it's unlikely that Kerry will get the large percentage he needs of the outstanding votes. And, even if Kerry wins Ohio, he would become a president, who, like the one ridiculed before him, would enter the White House without a popular mandate. Grim.

OK. Time for me to shake off the cobwebs and return to a life a productivity. I'll try to post more as, if, and when large developments occur.